In addition to the fact that the war between Russia and Ukraine is a humanitarian tragedy, the military conflict should also bring about changes in global trade and benefit the sectors of countries producing commodities such as wheat, maize or oil, as well as the defense equipment industry.
According to experts UOL, the vacuum in exports of products from countries directly affected by the war and growing demand for other products are likely to strengthen some products. Some exporting countries, such as Australia, China, France and Nigeria, will also win.
“In the short term, countries that supply inputs that are directly or indirectly generated by the countries involved in the confrontation will generally benefit,” said Carla Argenta, chief economist at CM Capital.
Ricardo Rocha, a professor of economics at Insper, believes that China and Australia, for example, could benefit from an increase in the value of the main products sold by some countries during the year.
“Commodity-producing countries have a difference relative to food, ore, or oil. So yes, those countries should get stronger,” he said.
Experts have listed some sectors that may emerge from the intensified conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Look:
Ukraine was one of the largest producers of corn in the world. According to experts, with the war, the country should reduce the supply of food and make room for countries like the US and Argentina.
Conab data show that Ukraine exported about 18.7 million tons of corn last year. Export leaders are the USA (54 million tonnes) and Argentina (33.5 million tonnes). The two largest producers must win the market, which Ukraine no longer supplies, and also take advantage of higher prices with lower production.
“Obviously, because commodity prices have risen a lot due to scarcity, these countries will benefit from this commodity,” said Thiago Guedes, an economist at AMG Capital.
In addition to food production, the coming of war to Europe decades from now should boost arms sales on the continent.
“The immediate consequence of these disputes is an increase in armaments around the world, benefiting major arms, aircraft and other military equipment-producing countries,” said Thiago Guedes, an economist at AMG Capital.
Guedes believes the main beneficiary should be the United States, the world’s largest arms seller. Russia is the second largest exporter, and France is also expected to benefit.
According to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri), the United States sold arms for $ 10.6 billion last year, while France, in third place, sold about $ 3.9 billion.
The countries directly involved in the conflict are also major wheat producers. According to Conab, Russia ranked fourth in production last year with 72.5 million tonnes and Ukraine sixth with 33 million tonnes.
Between the destruction of Ukrainian production and the export difficulties of the Russian conflict, countries that already own a large part of production must take part in the market.
Alex Agostini, chief economist at Austin Rating, estimates that China, which produces 136 million tonnes, and India, which produced 108 million tonnes last year, are leading production and are expected to boost exports.
According to XP Investimentos’ analysis, the reduction in ore production and the rise in prices should leverage the sector.
In addition, Russia and Ukraine are major producers of ore pellets. The material is an ore agglomerate used in the manufacture of steel. Together, these two countries account for about 30 percent of the supply of this product to the steel sector.
The war raises doubts about production, which, among other things, raised the price of the commodity by about 30% this year.
For example, Metinvest, controlled by Rinat Akhmetov, the richest man in Ukraine, said Ukraine had cut more than half of its iron ore production after the Russian invasion.
The great uncertainty in production should make Australia, the world’s largest exporter of iron ore, take over a part of the market that the countries do not supply.
As a result of the war, several countries stopped buying Russian oil. Countries such as Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia have banned the import of oil from the country.
The problem is that Russia is the world’s third-largest oil producer after the United States and Saudi Arabia, and all the uncertainty about Russia’s ability to get the raw material has pushed up prices.
Thus, according to Alex Agostin, chief economist at Austin Rating, rising oil prices and a vacuum in Russian production will lead to new investment in the sector and also open up opportunities for smaller countries to meet this demand.
“It’s one of those sectors that added value to the product because oil rose sharply and should be strengthened with future investment,” he said.
Therefore, according to experts, countries whose economies are more dependent on oil exports, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, or other large oil reserves, such as Venezuela and Nigeria, could benefit.
According to the latest data from OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries), Venezuela has the largest oil reserves on the planet, 25% of oil reserves. Nigeria is second only to the countries of the Middle East and has 3% of the funds.